Betting with the nuts against a capped range

At equilibrium, a polarized range betting against a wants the biggest bet it can make. This calculator shows why: enter the pot, the stack and how much of your betting range is the nuts, and it gives the best size, how many bluffs go with each value bet, how often the must call, and the EV of every size.

Lesson: When the stack plan needs an overbet (needs an invite). In the glossary: Capped range, Polarized range, Bluff-catcher. How the numbers are made.

Last updated

Best bet
150
all in
0.60
37.5% of the bets are bluffs
40.0%
of bluff catchers call
64.0%
against 40.0% by checking
The bettor's share of the pot for every bet size, from checking to all in
Check: 40.0% of the potAll in, 150 into 100: 64.0%

to get all in

StreetsBetsShare of the pot each street
1150150%
250.0, 10050%
329.4, 46.6, 74.029%

The game behind it

This is the clairvoyance game from The Mathematics of Poker. You hold either the nuts or air and you know which; the caller holds a bluff catcher, a hand that beats your air and loses to your nuts. The caller's range is capped: nothing in it beats your best hands. You bet every nut hand and add bluffs so the caller cannot profit from calling or folding, and the caller calls just often enough that your bluffs break even.

Why the biggest bet wins most

With a bet of b pots, you bluff b ÷ (1 + b) times per value bet and the caller calls 1 ÷ (1 + b) of the time. Your share of the pot is v(1 + 2b) ÷ (1 + b), where v is your share of nuts, and it rises with every increase in b. A bigger bet lets you bluff more, and each bluff turns a hand that would lose at showdown into one that sometimes wins the pot. The caller can do nothing about it, because a capped range has no hand that wins against the nuts.

A worked example

The page opens on 150 behind in a pot of 100, with the nuts 40% of the time. Checking wins the pot only with the nuts: 40%. Shoving 150 lets you bluff 0.6 times per value bet, so 37.5% of your shoves are bluffs; the caller must call 40% of the time, and you take 64% of the pot. Over two streets, half-pot bets on the turn and the river get the same stacks in. The poker math page has the bluff and defense formulas, and the pot odds calculator gives the caller's side.

Real ranges are rarely this clean. When the caller can hold the nuts too, or your value hands are thin, smaller bets do better.