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Variance and bankroll

Tournament results swing widely, even for a winning player. Set your , field and payouts to see the a winning player lives through, and the that survives them.

Lesson: Same decisions, different results (needs an invite). In the glossary: ROI, Downswing, Bankroll. How the numbers are made.

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Seed 1

Using 20%, 500 players, 75 paid, 10%. First place pays 92 BI, a min-cash 1 BI. Values outside the limits are clamped.

Running profit over 1,000 tournaments506 BI to −238 BI
━ median run┅ expected profit▒ 5th to 95th percentile━ 12 sample careers
180 BI95% of careers never lost more · no end date: 264 BI
Expected profit+200 BISimulated mean +191 BI
188 BI5.9 BI per tournament
Chance of a loss14%after 1,000 tournaments
437tournaments, median · 1 in 10: 862
109 BImedian · 1 in 10: 187 BI
20%cashes per tournament
5th to 95th percentile−105 BIto +503 BI at the end

Approximate: Payout shapes are rounded approximations of common online MTT pay tables, not any real site's structure. The skill model is the usual one in variance calculators: a winning player cashes more often, spread evenly over the paid places.

Playing cash games? The poker variance calculator works from your win rate and standard deviation in bb/100.