How ICM works
The Independent Chip Model says each player's chance of finishing first is their share of the chips. The chance of second place comes from removing each possible winner in turn and sharing first place among those left the same way, and so on down the payouts. Multiply each finish by its prize and add them up: that is the ICM value.
A worked example
The page opens on a published four-way final table with $200, $120, $80 and $50 still to pay and stacks of 100,000, 70,000, 50,000 and 20,000. The chip leader holds 42% of the chips but is worth $140.84 by ICM, 31% of the $450 left. The short stack holds 8% of the chips and is worth $76.40: the $50 for fourth is already locked up, so short stacks are worth more than their chips and big stacks less.
ICM or chip chop?
A chip chop pays the smallest prize to everyone and splits the rest by chips, which favors the chip leader. An ICM deal follows the model, which favors the short stacks. The last column shows the gap for each player. Leave some money to play for and it comes off first prize before the split. ICM also changes which hands to shove and call near the money; the push/fold charts and the push/fold solver use it. For the chip chop on its own, see the chip chop calculator.