Odds and value
The arithmetic behind every decision: what it is worth, and what price it needs.
- EVExpected value: what a decision wins or loses on average, measured in big blinds.
- EV lossHow much EV your choice gave up compared with the best available action.
- EquityYour share of the pot if all the cards were dealt out right now, as a percentage.
- Required equityThe minimum equity a call needs to break even, given the price you are being offered.
- Pot oddsThe ratio of the pot to the price of a call, such as 3:1.
- Fold equityThe extra value a bet or shove gains from the times your opponent folds.
- Postflop callsCalling or folding after the flop when the price is exact: facing an all-in, or a bet on the river.
- All-in EVWhat your all-ins were worth on average, counting each called all-in at your equity instead of its result.
- Minimum defense frequencyThe share of your range you must continue with so that a pure bluff against you does not profit.
- Bluff break-evenHow often a bluff must make the other player fold to break even, set by the bet and the pot.
- Bluff-to-value ratioHow many bluffs a balanced river bet can hold for each value hand, set by the bet size.
- Outs and the rule of 2 and 4Outs are the unseen cards that improve a drawing hand to a likely winner; count them to estimate equity.
- Win percentageHow often a hand wins the whole pot on its own once all five board cards are out.
- Split potA tie: two or more hands are equally best at showdown and share the pot.
- Monte Carlo samplingEstimating equity by dealing a large random sample of boards instead of every possible one.
- Rule of 2 and 4A quick way to turn outs into a chance: outs times 4 with two cards to come, times 2 with one.
- Implied oddsChips you expect to win on later streets when your draw hits, which can justify a call the pot odds alone cannot.
- Winrate confidenceThe margin of error around a measured winrate, which shrinks only with the square root of the hands played.
- DrawA hand that is not made yet but becomes strong if the right card comes.
- Standard deviationA measure of how far results usually swing either side of their average.
- Runner-runnerMaking a hand with help from both the turn and the river, such as a flush that needed two more cards of a suit.