Fold equity
The extra value a bet or shove gains from the times your opponent folds.
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- What it means
- A bet can win in two ways: the opponent folds, or you win at showdown. Fold equity is the part of its value that comes from the folds.
- How it is calculated
- Value of a shove = chance they fold × the pot you take + chance they call × your result when called. The first term is the fold equity.
- Worked example
- In the small blind at 10bb with 72o, the big blind calls about 37% of the time. Folds win you 1bb 63% of the time, worth +0.63bb. When called you have about 30% equity against their range and lose about 4bb on average, which costs 0.37 × 4 ≈ 1.5bb. The folds are not enough, so 72o folds.
- Why it matters
- Fold equity is why short stacks shove hands that would lose if called: the steals pay for the showdowns. It shrinks as the opponent calls more.
Try it: Poker math
Formula and worked example: Bluffs and fold equity in poker math
Lessons that teach it: What their folds are worth, A bet with a draw wins two ways, Shove or fold: compare two prices, How often a bluff has to work, Building a check-raising range · lessons other than the free one need an invite