Bluff-to-value ratio
How many bluffs a balanced river bet can hold for each value hand, set by the bet size.
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- What it means
- When a river bet holds only value hands and bluffs, the caller breaks even when the bluffs make up exactly their required equity. That fixes how many bluffs go with each value hand.
- How it is calculated
- Bluff share of the betting range = bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet). The ratio of bluffs to value is bet : (pot + bet). Earlier streets can carry more bluffs, since bluffs there still have cards to come.
- Worked example
- A pot-sized river bet of 10bb into 10bb gives the caller 2:1, so bluffs can be 10 ÷ 30 = 33% of the range: 1 bluff for every 2 value hands. At half pot it is 1 for every 3, 25% of the range.
- Why it matters
- Too few bluffs and good players fold everything but the nuts; too many and they call everything. The ratio says how many to pick at each size.
Try it: Poker math, Bet sizing against a capped range
Formula and worked example: Bluff-to-value ratio in poker math
Lessons that teach it: Bluffs as a share of every bet, A ratio and a share describe the same bets · lessons other than the free one need an invite
See also: Bluff break-even, Minimum defense frequency, Required equity