Bluff break-even
How often a bluff must make the other player fold to break even, set by the bet and the pot.
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- What it means
- A bluff that is always beaten when called wins the pot when they fold and loses the bet when they call. It breaks even at the fold share where those two balance.
- How it is calculated
- Break-even fold share = bet ÷ (pot + bet), using the pot before the bet. It is one minus the minimum defense frequency.
- Worked example
- You bluff 5bb into a 10bb pot. You risk 5 to win 10, so the bluff needs 5 ÷ 15 = 33% folds. A pot-sized bluff needs 50% and a 2x pot overbet needs 67%.
- Why it matters
- It turns a bluff into a question you can answer: will they fold more often than this? Small bluffs need few folds; big ones need many.
Try it: Poker math
Lessons that teach it: How often a bluff has to work · lessons other than the free one need an invite
See also: Minimum defense frequency, Fold equity, Bluff