Gambler's fallacy

Believing a random result is due because it has not happened for a while.

Last updated October 16, 2026

What it means: The gambler's fallacy is expecting chance to even out in the short run: after a run of losses, a win feels due. Each deal is independent of the last, so the deck owes nobody anything.
How it is calculated: Before acting on a feeling that your luck must turn, ask whether anything about this hand has changed. Your equity depends on the cards and the ranges in front of you and on nothing that happened earlier.
Worked example: You have missed 6 flush draws in a row. The next draw with 9 outs on the turn still comes in about 20% of the time, the same as the first one did.
Why it matters: The feeling of being due turns a normal losing stretch into loose calls and bigger stakes. Knowing it is a known error makes it easier to notice.