Outcome bias

Judging a decision by how it turned out and not by what was known when it was made.

Last updated October 16, 2026

What it means: Outcome bias is rating the same decision as better when it happens to work and worse when it happens to fail. Poker players call it resulting. The decision and the information behind it are identical; only the luck differs.
How it is calculated: Ask what you knew at the moment you acted: your equity, the price and the ranges. If the call was right with those, it was right whatever card came. This app grades the decision and never the pot for the same reason.
Worked example: You call an all-in with 80% equity and lose. Over 100 such calls you win about 80. The 1 hand you just lost says nothing about whether the call was good.
Why it matters: A player who learns from results stops making good calls after they lose and repeats bad ones after they win. Separating the two is the base of every other mental skill.