Results against decisions
Judging a play by its expected value when you made it, not by whether it won the pot.
Last updated
- What it means
- Every decision has an expected value given what you knew. The result of one hand adds luck on top: good decisions lose often and bad ones win often. Results-oriented thinking is judging plays by how they turned out.
- How it is calculated
- Ask what the play earns on average against the hands your opponent could hold. The app grades decisions this way, by EV loss or by the chart or solver frequency, never by the result of the hand.
- Worked example
- Aces all in against kings win about 82% of the time. Getting 100bb in earns 0.82 × 200 − 100 = +64bb on average, so the call is right even on the 18% of runs where it loses.
- Why it matters
- Learning from results teaches the wrong lessons: you repeat lucky mistakes and drop good plays that happened to lose.
Try it: Mental game
Lessons that teach it: Same decisions, different results · lessons other than the free one need an invite
See also: EV, Luck and play, Downswing