Luck and play
A session's result split into what the cards did and what your decisions cost.
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- What it means
- Luck is the gap between your real result and your all-in adjusted result: positive when you won more all-ins than your equity, negative when you lost more. Play is the EV your graded decisions lost against the best play.
- How it is calculated
- Luck = real result − all-in adjusted result. Play is the EV lost total from your grades. A hand panel also says when the two disagree in one hand: you lost the pot but played every decision right, or you won it but lost EV along the way.
- Worked example
- A session ends at −30bb with an all-in adjusted result of +15bb and 4bb of EV lost: 45bb went to bad luck, and your play cost 4bb.
- Why it matters
- Judging yourself by results teaches the wrong lessons: a losing session played well is a good session. Separating luck from play keeps your focus on the decisions you control.
See also: All-in adjusted result, EV lost, Session result