Bluff share
The share of a player's bets that are bluffs rather than value hands.
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- What it means
- Bluff share is the fraction of a betting range made up of bluffs. A balanced river bettor bluffs just often enough that your bluff-catchers break even by calling.
- How it is calculated
- The balanced bluff share is bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet). A bluff-catcher's call makes money when the actual bluff share is above that, and loses when it is below.
- Worked example
- Facing a pot-sized river bet of 20bb into 20bb, a balanced bettor bluffs 20 ÷ 60 = 33% of the time. If this player bluffs only 15%, calling earns 15% × 40bb − 85% × 20bb = −11bb, so fold.
- Why it matters
- Most low-stakes players under-bluff big river bets. Knowing the balanced share tells you how far below it they are, and how many bluff-catchers you can fold.
Lessons that teach it: Calling with a bluff-catcher · lessons other than the free one need an invite
See also: Bluff-catcher, Bluff-to-value ratio, Player pool