Illusion of control
Feeling you influence an outcome that chance alone decides.
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- What it means
- The illusion of control is treating a chance event as though skill decided it. Poker mixes the two, which makes it easy to credit a winning run to your play and a losing run to bad luck.
- How it is calculated
- Separate what you chose from what was dealt. You control your decisions and their EV. You do not control which card comes or whether a good bet gets called.
- Worked example
- A new player wins 3 sessions in a row and moves up in stakes. Over so few hands the results are mostly luck, and the mistakes that were there all along now cost more.
- Why it matters
- Early wins teach the wrong lessons if you read them as skill. Grades on decisions give feedback that luck cannot distort.
See also: Outcome bias, Luck and play, Downswing